Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Laura Siegemund vs Magdalena Frech
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x033faecc98f09d639da961513c05288b44587e6d515a88cabe6eb51c1d38462a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Siegemundof Siegemund, Frech
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked Siegemund | 57c | 6,462$3,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Siegemund | 53c | 4,669$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.74 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Frech | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.95 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Siegemund | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Frech | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6eb…3fcdbacked Frech | 31c | 1,941$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Siegemund | 54c | 1,543$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.65 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Frech | 43c | 1,272$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.36 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Frech | 43c | 1,259$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.29 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Frech | 42c | 1,250$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Siegemund | 67c | 1,242$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.93 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Siegemund | 57c | 1,000$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.03 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Frech | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Siegemund | 60c | 688.92$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.39 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Siegemund | 54c | 601.7$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.8 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Frech | 45c | 499.67$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.85 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Frech | 42c | 483$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.89 | 179 | 33%59 W · 120 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…5df3backed Frech | 46c | 461.2$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb7…082dbacked Frech | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Siegemund | 54c | 208.31$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.91 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Siegemund | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Frech | 46c | 175.17$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Frech | 32c | 164.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f6…3364backed Frech | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Siegemund | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e3…0b75backed Siegemund | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…052dbacked Frech | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Siegemund | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Frech | 35c | 88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Frech | 43c | 86.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Frech | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed6e…6040backed Frech | 45c | 65.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Siegemund | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Frech | 37c | 57.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Siegemund | 61c | 55.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Siegemund | 63c | 53.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Siegemund | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Siegemund | 62c | 44.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…dcc2backed Frech | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37c…e365backed Frech | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Siegemund | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Siegemund | 63c | 25.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Siegemund | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Siegemund | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Siegemund | 71c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.