Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x037e5e72c18af80a925eb73829de1207559366d66be8e1eb70bb49a4f440f512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 56c | 882.79$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.03 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 40c | 430.57$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 51c | 392.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 347.07$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.54$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.82 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 50c | 253.24$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 240.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.67 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 50c | 229.05$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.65 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 211.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 54c | 199.2$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 56c | 184.63$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 175.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 20c | 163.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 141.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 52c | 127.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…0149backed Yes | 57c | 118.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 68c | 117$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 43c | 111.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 49c | 104.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 43c | 98.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 49c | 89.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 48c | 82.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 25c | 76.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 51c | 74.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 51c | 72.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 48c | 71.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5614…83d0backed Yes | 70c | 70.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 19c | 66.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 77c | 63.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 50c | 59.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 52c | 57.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 52c | 57.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 58c | 56.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 31c | 54.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 54c | 53.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 51c | 52.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 57c | 50.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 56c | 48.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 58c | 48.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 49c | 46.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 47c | 42.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 41.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 39c | 40.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 42c | 37.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 42c | 35.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 59c | 31.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe00…b480backed Yes | 49c | 31.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 57c | 30.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 54c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 28.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 28.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…8115backed No | 52c | 28.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 27.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 43c | 27.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 53c | 26.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 25.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0b…7b92backed Yes | 50c | 25.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 56c | 24.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 49c | 21.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 18.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 77c | 15.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.