Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4931368756aee7143953643f5b444a0df4a9ff12678355a651e688aba6f8f8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 46c | 1,667$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.06 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 42c | 475.95$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.82 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 412.61$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 331.89$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 55c | 300.22$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.69 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 294.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 30c | 280.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 270.23$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 48c | 267.05$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.32 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 73c | 262.44$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 23c | 184.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 178.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 32c | 158.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 152.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 33c | 143.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 130.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 128.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 122.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 27c | 120.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 28c | 118.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 117.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 105.39$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 105.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 104.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 93.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 90.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 66c | 88.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 87.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 77c | 87.85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 85.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…bf1abacked Yes | 34c | 82.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 76c | 81.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 19c | 80.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 74c | 76.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 33c | 72.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 72.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 29c | 71.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 22c | 69.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 68.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 68.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 77c | 60.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 28c | 57.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 32c | 57.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…0149backed Yes | 33c | 56.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 36c | 56.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 25c | 53.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 76c | 51.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 49.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…dd84backed Yes | 28c | 49.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 65c | 49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 77c | 48.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 48.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 24c | 46.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 64c | 45.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 64c | 45.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 43.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…55f7backed Yes | 26c | 42.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 42.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 41.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 78c | 41.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 69c | 40.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 28c | 40.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 31c | 40.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 78c | 39.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 75c | 38.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 38.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 36.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 64c | 32.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…9326backed Yes | 37c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…7833backed No | 79c | 28.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 78c | 27.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 78c | 27.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked No | 66c | 24.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 69c | 23.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 80c | 22.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 49c | 21.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 74c | 19.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 79c | 18.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 66c | 15.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e4…a01fbacked No | 80c | 14.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…5b01backed No | 78c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 78cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C or higher on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.