Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03d6bf228d86f6e59d8ad62a3f2b925b438deda36ad53dfc84fc98dc4e320632
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Yes | 35c | 2,410$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.27 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 65c | 2,137$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.26 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 1,572$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.41 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 65c | 1,270$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.42 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 54c | 1,224$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.15 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 1,172$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.86 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 23c | 827.2$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.26 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 72c | 797.62$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.85 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…73e7backed Yes | 21c | 714.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…4853backed Yes | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked No | 78c | 569.66$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.69 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Yes | 6c | 472.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 8cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 44c | 468.09$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.38 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e79…2d68backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 34c | 344.72$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…ce3fbacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…7bc4backed Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…adcebacked Yes | 26c | 195.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884b…c480backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 39c | 121.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 76c | 101.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8d…8cdcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed No | 43c | 56.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 837 | 33%276 W · 561 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 22c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked Yes | 46c | 45.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 23c | 43.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 77c | 38.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 763 | 56.1%428 W · 335 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 32.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed No | 77c | 18.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 79c | 16.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 193 | 55.4%107 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 78c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 308 | 51%157 W · 151 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw?this page
- Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-08-27?Yes won
- Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.