Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a8570091b91a1dbd98704dc9c341dc9829aea21b199f05bf1e3d99041df7e49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 13c | 6,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -14.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…203cbacked Yes | 14c | 5,653$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0d…5de2backed Yes | 13c | 2,154$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 15c | 1,312$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,303$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 15c | 1,284$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.27 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,171$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 8cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 16c | 1,108$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.28 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 2c | 1,020$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 73c | 1,007$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.99 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 14c | 999.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9116…fe64backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e2…ce3fbacked Yes | 14c | 721.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…44b2backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 590.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 3,247 | 42.2%1,370 W · 1,877 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 78c | 501$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.35 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 12c | 405.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60bd…2469backed Yes | 3c | 338.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 74c | 325.79$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 205 | 43.9%90 W · 115 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…7bc4backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 13c | 214.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…144bbacked Yes | 18c | 190.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…adcebacked Yes | 19c | 141.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…4b72backed Yes | 16c | 126.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…cf8ebacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 73c | 106.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…3293backed Yes | 14c | 91.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 73c | 50.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 76c | 32.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 206 | 46.1%95 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv win on 2026-08-27?this page
- Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-08-27?Yes won
- Will MH Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.