Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: FC Famalicão (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03e23627b10d8321a638911aa4bc62e27e23dae57c5f613fd19e38c3251b4d00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Famalicãoof FC Famalicão, AVS Futebol
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked AVS Futebol | 59c | 665.48$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.3 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed AVS Futebol | 61c | 506.21$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.68 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7e…8a0fbacked FC Famalicão | 40c | 472.88$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed FC Famalicão | 39c | 435.62$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Famalicão | 45c | 391.82$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.76 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed AVS Futebol | 57c | 225.54$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.56 | 108 | 54.6%59 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed AVS Futebol | 61c | 220.16$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed AVS Futebol | 61c | 215.46$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed FC Famalicão | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AVS Futebol | 48c | 134.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked FC Famalicão | 39c | 128$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed FC Famalicão | 44c | 109.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked FC Famalicão | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed FC Famalicão | 38c | 83.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed FC Famalicão | 42c | 73.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed AVS Futebol | 16c | 69.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed FC Famalicão | 42c | 69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed FC Famalicão | 30c | 61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed FC Famalicão | 62c | 55.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed FC Famalicão | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed AVS Futebol | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed FC Famalicão | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed FC Famalicão | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AVS Futebol | 46c | 31.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed AVS Futebol | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Famalicão (-1.5)this page
- FC Famalicão vs. AVS Futebol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Famalicão vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Famalicão vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Famalicão vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Famalicão vs. AVS Futebol: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AVS Futebol (-2.5)FC Famalicão won
- Spread: FC Famalicão (-2.5)AVS Futebol won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.