Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03f861fb3a5110d78ba1d63fc47ab74d729325b99cecf14b5d9e08512de1f2a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mensikof Rublev, Mensik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Mensik | 61c | 1,020$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.68 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Rublev | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 253 | 40.3%102 W · 151 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Rublev | 38c | 950.29$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.11 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Rublev | 42c | 836.63$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Rublev | 35c | 579.21$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.72 | 755 | 43.4%328 W · 427 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa90b…5ca7backed Mensik | 62c | 476.32$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mensik | 59c | 375.86$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Rublev | 41c | 331.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 154 | 40.9%63 W · 91 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Rublev | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Mensik | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Mensik | 57c | 240$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Mensik | 65c | 229.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mensik | 65c | 205.75$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ba…2404backed Mensik | 61c | 205.16$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Rublev | 13c | 203.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Rublev | 39c | 203.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.45 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Mensik | 61c | 173.72$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mensik | 60c | 166.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Mensik | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Rublev | 35c | 129.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mensik | 59c | 119.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Mensik | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Mensik | 62c | 97.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Mensik | 55c | 87.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Mensik | 65c | 75.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 1,091 | 60.2%657 W · 434 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Mensik | 65c | 72.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Rublev | 41c | 66.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 302 | 26.8%81 W · 221 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Rublev | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Rublev | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,269 | 44.8%568 W · 701 L | -5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831f…cc50backed Rublev | 41c | 44.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 218 | 41.3%90 W · 128 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Rublev | 38c | 43.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Mensik | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 184 | 43.5%80 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x113e…ca7cbacked Mensik | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Mensik | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Rublev | 39c | 35.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Mensik | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed Mensik | 61c | 30.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 193 | 39.4%76 W · 117 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Mensik | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Mensik | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mensik | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Mensik | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)this page
- Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey RublevYes won
- Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey RublevJakub Mensik won
- Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs RublevMensik won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)Mensik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.