Tennis · resolved market
Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x873146df4fd877b15af6d91a1a894ef6642d23cf1f818dd7d561df02aaaf4caa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 28c | 6,001$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.81 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Over 3.5 | 72c | 5,905$4,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,674.93 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 1,075$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.39 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 1,041$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.33 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 30c | 893.8$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.76 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…13d1backed Under 3.5 | 29c | 827.59$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under 3.5 | 29c | 806.48$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.28 | 423 | 41.4%175 W · 248 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 686.87$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.66 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 642$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under 3.5 | 31c | 614.38$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.46 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over 3.5 | 71c | 552.17$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.13 | 798 | 55.9%446 W · 352 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf38…848bbacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 528.28$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…2c38backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 500$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 128 | 50.8%65 W · 63 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over 3.5 | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…a64abacked Under 3.5 | 31c | 487.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 485.41$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.36 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 485.41$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.62 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…4e15backed Under 3.5 | 34c | 446.18$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.15 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Over 3.5 | 67c | 350$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 328 | 51.8%170 W · 158 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Over 3.5 | 71c | 333.9$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.83 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…a2ebbacked Under 3.5 | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee12…c850backed Over 3.5 | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 252.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 240$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 233.48$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…9ea9backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 208.56$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.57 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 202.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…06a2backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over 3.5 | 69c | 199.98$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 419 | 55.8%234 W · 185 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Under 3.5 | 28c | 195.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…ff06backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 188.75$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 3.5 | 67c | 177.42$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 161.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 349 | 57.6%201 W · 148 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under 3.5 | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under 3.5 | 28c | 111.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 268 | 49.3%132 W · 136 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…4b7abacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…8222backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 95.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…6655backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 94.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 3.5 | 30c | 93.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fad…20c6backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 92.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 91.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under 3.5 | 45c | 90.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd492…7469backed Over 3.5 | 72c | 83.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…199bbacked Under 3.5 | 50c | 80.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under 3.5 | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed Under 3.5 | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 72.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 584 | 53.1%310 W · 274 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…6451backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…f8ddbacked Over 3.5 | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under 3.5 | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under 3.5 | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over 3.5 | 77c | 58.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under 3.5 | 29c | 56.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Over 3.5 | 73c | 56.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…8b07backed Over 3.5 | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under 3.5 | 29c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 491 | 51.7%254 W · 237 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ab…ecebbacked Over 3.5 | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over 3.5 | 72c | 32.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…551abacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Under 3.5 | 36c | 30.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 354 | 36.4%129 W · 225 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…0ef7backed Over 3.5 | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0351…d8e8backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…d2a4backed Over 3.5 | 72c | 26.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1373…8262backed Under 3.5 | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…27a7backed Over 3.5 | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Over 3.5 | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Over 3.5 | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…c02abacked Over 3.5 | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey RublevYes won
- Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey RublevJakub Mensik won
- Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs RublevMensik won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)Mensik won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)Mensik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.