Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Rublev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xced5a742084f566216eda35b13afd9eadc1593c105d5a7de457554a53853f517
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mensikof Mensik, Rublev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rublev | 9c | 4,109$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.85 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Rublev | 49c | 2,262$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mensik | 47c | 1,796$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.93 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Rublev | 7c | 1,367$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mensik | 71c | 1,322$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.74 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…cc1bbacked Rublev | 53c | 1,220$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.69 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…2329backed Rublev | 18c | 862.32$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.22 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mensik | 47c | 842.38$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.46 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd795…e716backed Rublev | 16c | 618.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74b…4e15backed Mensik | 52c | 598.44$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.63 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Mensik | 50c | 590.46$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.23 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Rublev | 53c | 556.9$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 1,118 | 42.8%479 W · 639 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Rublev | 51c | 546.28$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.6 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Rublev | 9c | 522.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rublev | 9c | 514.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Rublev | 49c | 433.08$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Rublev | 31c | 419.68$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f8…bf06backed Rublev | 25c | 394.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Mensik | 47c | 373.4$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.63 | 587 | 45.7%268 W · 319 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Mensik | 49c | 355.1$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.1 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…6ca6backed Mensik | 50c | 296.92$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.46 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Rublev | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Rublev | 11c | 278.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Mensik | 47c | 260.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.72 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Rublev | 53c | 229.83$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.81 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Rublev | 50c | 217$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 289 | 47.8%138 W · 151 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mensik | 48c | 208.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.32 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Mensik | 47c | 201.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…d5d0backed Rublev | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 247 | 62.3%154 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Rublev | 53c | 192.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…c8f7backed Rublev | 52c | 182.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…8613backed Mensik | 55c | 181$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Mensik | 49c | 165.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.31 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Mensik | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Rublev | 23c | 134$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Rublev | 52c | 126$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Mensik | 62c | 124.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd729…7ef2backed Rublev | 52c | 115.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…9852backed Rublev | 52c | 104.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Rublev | 52c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Mensik | 73c | 88.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Rublev | 23c | 73.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Mensik | 53c | 65.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked Rublev | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Rublev | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…f5d0backed Rublev | 53c | 52.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Mensik | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Mensik | 58c | 39.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Mensik | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Rublev | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 160 | 18.1%29 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Rublev | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…0450backed Rublev | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mensik | 70c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mensik | 67c | 15.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…ffeabacked Mensik | 77c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 347 | 29.4%102 W · 245 L | -35.6wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Rublevthis page
- Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Jakub Mensik vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 4.5Over 4.5 won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 40.5Over won
- Mensik vs. Rublev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey RublevYes won
- Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey RublevJakub Mensik won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5)Mensik won
- Set Handicap: Rublev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5)Mensik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.