WNBA · resolved market
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 184.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0400f3a4f45b01f61e6dc10e500323e754472f75177904e2ab4c180938d8b2cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 46c | 1,994$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.23 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 1,291$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.86 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 704.5$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.3 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 54c | 645.5$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.93 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 550.02$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.56 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Over | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Under | 50c | 202.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Under | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3c…9320backed Over | 55c | 182.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 172.84$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 40c | 169.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 33c | 149.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 149.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 43c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 54c | 36.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…d432backed Over | 54c | 32.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 53c | 31.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 70c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 54c | 18.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 184.5this page
- Bridget Carleton: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Kelsey Plum: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 183.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 185.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 186.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. PortlandFireLos Angeles Sparks won
- Spread: Portland Fire (-1.5)Los Angeles Sparks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.