WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Portland Fire (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d42feb0249a265ac038d9950cc9a7a818f345069bc8c2d6582d93d88b4dd397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Sparksof Portland Fire, Los Angeles Sparks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Portland Fire | 47c | 10,053$4,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,693.74 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…5032backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 5,867$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.51 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Los Angeles Sparks | 55c | 5,757$3,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,606.09 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Portland Fire | 46c | 3,196$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.13 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 2,404$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.59 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 2,005$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.3 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Portland Fire | 45c | 1,791$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.74 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Sparks | 56c | 999.99$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.32 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 922.98$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.74 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Portland Fire | 45c | 900.49$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.22 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Portland Fire | 47c | 548.96$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.01 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Portland Fire | 45c | 506.77$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.05 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Los Angeles Sparks | 48c | 450$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.5 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed Los Angeles Sparks | 45c | 449.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.14 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Portland Fire | 42c | 376.52$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Los Angeles Sparks | 29c | 332.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.39 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 72c | 315.26$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Portland Fire | 39c | 286.66$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.65 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed Portland Fire | 25c | 263.26$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 64c | 260$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 261 | 47.1%123 W · 138 L | +15.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Portland Fire | 46c | 256$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Portland Fire | 45c | 253.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.06 | 347 | 26.5%92 W · 255 L | -20.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Sparks | 45c | 249.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.34 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Portland Fire | 47c | 240$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969e…b834backed Portland Fire | 51c | 221$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Portland Fire | 38c | 216$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 281 | 40.6%114 W · 167 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…4fadbacked Portland Fire | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Portland Fire | 46c | 173$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23b5…97e1backed Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 131.54$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.45 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Portland Fire | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Los Angeles Sparks | 41c | 120.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Portland Fire | 60c | 115$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 103.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Portland Fire | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Portland Fire | 44c | 99.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Portland Fire | 30c | 99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Portland Fire | 29c | 97.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Portland Fire | 46c | 96.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Portland Fire | 46c | 93.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 92.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Portland Fire | 36c | 88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Portland Fire | 46c | 83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 80.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Portland Fire | 64c | 79.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Portland Fire | 48c | 78.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Portland Fire | 56c | 69.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Portland Fire | 51c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Portland Fire | 55c | 65.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 120 | 45%54 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Portland Fire | 65c | 64.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…4ee7backed Portland Fire | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 48cpaid | -74%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 59c | 61.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 52.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…de1abacked Portland Fire | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Portland Fire | 52c | 43.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa662…4823backed Portland Fire | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Portland Fire | 44c | 37.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 176 | 56.8%100 W · 76 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…33a6backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Portland Fire | 56c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Portland Fire | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Los Angeles Sparks | 38c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Portland Fire | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Portland Fire | 50c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 26.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Portland Fire | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Portland Fire | 44c | 23.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 23.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d5…82bfbacked Portland Fire | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Portland Fire (-1.5)this page
- Bridget Carleton: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Kelsey Plum: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 183.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 184.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 185.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 186.5Over won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. PortlandFireLos Angeles Sparks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.