WNBA · resolved market

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 185.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd42d465fc6e072f365f2e734a50510d25baba83f6e9f1435b4ad83bbd028a2e2

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $64,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $64,040

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,032 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in WNBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf070…ac55backed Over	52c	37,872$19,693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,178.47	107	49.5%53 W · 54 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Under	48c	20,000$9,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,600	15	86.7%13 W · 2 L	+4.9wins	+0.33per pick	54cpaid	+64.1%equal weight	64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Over	51c	14,011$7,119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,891.56	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Under	49c	5,102$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under	48c	4,168$2,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000.64	88	59.1%52 W · 36 L	+8.5wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	49c	3,081$1,496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,496.28	386	50.3%194 W · 192 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	+3.4wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed Under	49c	2,985$1,463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,462.68	72	41.7%30 W · 42 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	48c	2,869$1,377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,377.04	837	48.1%403 W · 434 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	48c	2,485$1,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,187.52	1,765	51.7%912 W · 853 L	+53.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	47c	2,282$1,083 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,083.2	995	48.1%479 W · 516 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Under	50c	2,194$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	-7.6wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	2,011$1,005 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,005.41	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under	48c	2,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960	114	57.9%66 W · 48 L	+9.4wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Under	48c	2,000$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$960	75	49.3%37 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	55c	1,993$1,099 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$894.38	1,611	50.2%809 W · 802 L	+37.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	47c	1,302$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.84	893	49.4%441 W · 452 L	+5.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked Under	50c	1,007$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.52	141	48.9%69 W · 72 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Over	50c	999.99$505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495	90	42.2%38 W · 52 L	-8.4wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under	48c	981.41$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.08	143	45.5%65 W · 78 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	48c	971.99$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.56	462	47%217 W · 245 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over	52c	954$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$457.92	66	50%33 W · 33 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	48c	858.36$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.39	749	42.3%317 W · 432 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0a1…a119backed Over	50c	800$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	58	50%29 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71bc…7fe4backed Under	49c	612.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	149	48.3%72 W · 77 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over	52c	565.92$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.64	237	46.4%110 W · 127 L	-10.1wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Over	52c	500$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	49c	468$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.61	552	55.1%304 W · 248 L	+25.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	44c	305.92$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.89	325	40.3%131 W · 194 L	-17.6wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd238…ee03backed Over	51c	255.06$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.24	93	36.6%34 W · 59 L	-6.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Under	50c	221.68$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.43	126	61.1%77 W · 49 L	+11.8wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under	49c	210$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.9	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3992…349cbacked Under	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	74	35.1%26 W · 48 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-14%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb143…cadebacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeba0…4586backed Over	52c	175.77$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.37	98	27.6%27 W · 71 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	49c	142$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.58	286	47.9%137 W · 149 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Under	48c	134$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.32	131	47.3%62 W · 69 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa560…767dbacked Under	49c	120$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Under	47c	119.98$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.39	270	49.6%134 W · 136 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c9…2038backed Under	36c	103.86$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.78	224	40.2%90 W · 134 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe72…900fbacked Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Under	49c	87.33$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.79	123	59.3%73 W · 50 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under	49c	80$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.8	173	43.9%76 W · 97 L	-8.9wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe217…9626backed Over	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Over	67c	73.39$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.4	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	-6.7wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under	50c	70$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae9c…d59dbacked Over	52c	69$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed Under	33c	55.18$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.21	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25f7…680bbacked Under	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over	62c	45.75$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.49	85	56.5%48 W · 37 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Under	49c	45.31$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	108	53.7%58 W · 50 L	+9.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under	48c	45$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	260	54.6%142 W · 118 L	+9.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Under	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	60%33 W · 22 L	+4.5wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Under	48c	40.29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.34	157	46.5%73 W · 84 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Over	57c	38.46$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.55	192	57.3%110 W · 82 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x118d…d432backed Over	51c	31.71$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.54	71	47.9%34 W · 37 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over	62c	30.26$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.48	133	55.6%74 W · 59 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Over	52c	26.52$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.62	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-2.2wins	-0.08per pick	60cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b89…23fbbacked Under	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under	50c	24.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 185.5this page
Bridget Carleton: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
Kelsey Plum: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 183.5Over won
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 184.5Over won
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 186.5Over won
Los Angeles Sparks vs. PortlandFireLos Angeles Sparks won
Spread: Portland Fire (-1.5)Los Angeles Sparks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Portland Fire: O/U 185.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event