MLB · resolved market
Marlins vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0433a05ca8a52cf29a8298763621219ac0f5fe4100d8ca6ce864da54d758ba8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Marlins, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,696
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a63…e4b7backed Cubs | 70c | 146,000$102,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…3877backed Marlins | 30c | 146,000$43,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cubs | 9c | 2,768$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,507.8 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…b33bbacked Marlins | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cubs | 20c | 1,952$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.6 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd6…a014backed Marlins | 30c | 1,700$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Marlins | 31c | 1,613$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Cubs | 69c | 1,261$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.6 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…1f78backed Cubs | 70c | 1,046$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…a480backed Cubs | 70c | 954$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x078c…a68abacked Cubs | 70c | 860$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed3…f05fbacked Cubs | 70c | 840$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Cubs | 69c | 788.49$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.43 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cubs | 69c | 713.4$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.27 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd156…c03fbacked Marlins | 30c | 670$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…013fbacked Cubs | 70c | 670$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cubs | 20c | 646.12$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…743cbacked Marlins | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cubs | 76c | 582$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.68 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 29c | 558.74$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.4 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Marlins | 30c | 399.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Cubs | 51c | 392.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.44 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cubs | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Marlins | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cubs | 41c | 296.88$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.48 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 70c | 284.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marlins | 32c | 232$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Cubs | 28c | 215.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.79 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Marlins | 9c | 189.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cubs | 50c | 185.36$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cubs | 66c | 165.56$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Cubs | 22c | 159.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fc…3280backed Cubs | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 70c | 133.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…0b85backed Cubs | 70c | 122$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…bb94backed Marlins | 30c | 122$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…fcdfbacked Marlins | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…27ddbacked Marlins | 41c | 96.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cubs | 32c | 92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.88 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cubs | 71c | 87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cubs | 17c | 65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.75 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c07…9748backed Cubs | 71c | 53.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb770…3a5abacked Marlins | 31c | 50.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cubs | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…1f11backed Marlins | 77c | 49.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…7ae0backed Cubs | 41c | 47.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd52…577bbacked Marlins | 31c | 46.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e9…9f82backed Cubs | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Marlins | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Marlins | 30c | 38.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cubs | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265d…5329backed Cubs | 73c | 34.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Marlins | 57c | 27.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…620cbacked Cubs | 71c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…e180backed Cubs | 71c | 21.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1670…56e3backed Cubs | 70c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Marlins | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b1…0c27backed Cubs | 71c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eff…4ba2backed Cubs | 70c | 19.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…e08dbacked Cubs | 71c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9de…07d5backed Cubs | 70c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…a7c6backed Cubs | 70c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8065…4950backed Cubs | 70c | 18.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…c293backed Cubs | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8a…981dbacked Cubs | 71c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cubs | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.