NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0462c11d3180e89a1e27ccc50f966b5ffcda8a54a7f17859c2758caf9b5633bc

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 17, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,241
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,610

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,241 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6e82…752cbacked Over	53c	6,998$3,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,298.54	1,204	55.3%666 W · 538 L	+52.0wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	46c	6,687$3,077 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,077.27	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	46c	5,268$2,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,424.52	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2900…af64backed Under	48c	3,712$1,775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,774.64	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Over	53c	3,342$1,771 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,570.66	193	51.3%99 W · 94 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	53c	2,020$1,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$949.6	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0801…fd93backed Over	55c	1,900$1,045 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$855	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x845b…9041backed Under	45c	1,900$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Under	47c	1,050$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.42	356	51.1%182 W · 174 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Over	61c	565.74$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.34	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over	56c	286$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.84	522	40%209 W · 313 L	-8.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	47c	228.45$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.12	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x068f…4594backed Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	80	45%36 W · 44 L	-5.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Under	44c	169$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.36	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	45c	100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	354	47.7%169 W · 185 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5224…0de8backed Over	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	+4.4wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over	57c	90.8$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.04	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	82.85$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.43	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63dd…c279backed Under	50c	73.76$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.88	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	51c	66.27$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.47	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	49c	66.27$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.47	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed Under	47c	66.06$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.05	203	56.7%115 W · 88 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ec…ad73backed Under	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	194	51.5%100 W · 94 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2921…78b3backed Over	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Under	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc76…d76dbacked Under	47c	27.66$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	46cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Under	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	95	49.5%47 W · 48 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event