NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x311a86d0edf53391047ea2612bdd661ab385686e5a3511c390c7dc626ef8b34a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 49c | 3,125$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.24 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 3,083$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.61 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 3,072$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.59 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 50c | 955$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.5 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Over | 56c | 613.57$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.57 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 51c | 600.01$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 508$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.09 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Under | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 51c | 260.38$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.59 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5f…2348backed Over | 52c | 135.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Over | 54c | 98.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 53c | 69.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Under | 52c | 60.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 442 | 43.7%193 W · 249 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…a09fbacked Over | 53c | 37.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…79f9backed Over | 62c | 22.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…a54abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcca…da80backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Pacers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.