NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5859aa9d877222d7ad6584e713104b9fcf7ddb7a2487527e981fb508d7d4a33f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 50c | 4,981$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 48c | 4,886$2,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,345.28 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 48c | 2,800$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 488$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.12 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 488$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.12 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 225.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.3 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 142.96$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.03 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 114$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f91…7c76backed Under | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9585…475cbacked Under | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…09f2backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…da96backed Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…d146backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Pacers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.