NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaae3b78ece617333d174382e74c7fc6de616ed251017984ac591660165cf063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf95…3114backed Under | 43c | 5,800$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e2…bb9bbacked Over | 57c | 5,800$3,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,499 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 55c | 4,201$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890.26 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 2,460$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.19 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 2,174$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 55c | 1,093$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.85 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Under | 47c | 791.25$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.89 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Under | 48c | 622.92$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Under | 46c | 581.87$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.66 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Under | 48c | 541.67$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 54c | 464.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.98 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 44c | 450$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…af64backed Under | 48c | 346$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bc…bd81backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 52c | 288$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 249$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 61c | 245$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…e227backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dc…aefabacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 55c | 193.48$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 45c | 149.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 43c | 141$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf256…a93fbacked Under | 47c | 111$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f1…025dbacked Under | 48c | 77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Over | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…59b1backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 39c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 52c | 43.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf491…7096backed Over | 48c | 43.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…c365backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Over | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…2995backed Under | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d7…c151backed Over | 57c | 36.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 55c | 31.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…d76dbacked Under | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed Over | 53c | 24.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Over | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Pacers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.