NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8360b784684d91f4922356504ac57b00d57b1d0c43af0f4d70bbbdf1b900385d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Pacers | 49c | 9,369$4,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,552.01 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 45c | 6,598$2,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,617.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Pacers | 58c | 5,290$3,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,072 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pistons | 52c | 3,869$2,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8caf…13d0backed Pistons | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…c94fbacked Pacers | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce97…4ffbbacked Pacers | 48c | 2,517$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba45…87f3backed Pistons | 52c | 2,517$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.16 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Pistons | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons | 51c | 961.99$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.38 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pacers | 51c | 876.15$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.64 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Pistons | 41c | 720$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.8 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Pacers | 59c | 720$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.8 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Pistons | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pistons | 51c | 422$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Pistons | 54c | 372$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 48c | 312$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Pacers | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Pistons | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c4…0121backed Pistons | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Pistons | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Pistons | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Pistons | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…581bbacked Pistons | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pistons | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pistons | 48c | 48.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0e62backed Pacers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Pistons | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Pacers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 229.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 232.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-11.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.