TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Miami Open, Qualification: Erika Andreeva vs Rebecca Sramkova

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rebecca Sramkovaof Erika Andreeva, Rebecca Sramkova
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,677 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc37c…4e44backed Erika Andreeva0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-70.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Erika Andreeva10c6,200$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.322,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Rebecca Sramkova62c2,413$1,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.7120847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Rebecca Sramkova67c2,162$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.756,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Rebecca Sramkova74c2,151$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.498,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Erika Andreeva28c1,395$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.292,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cfb…0628backed Erika Andreeva38c1,311$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.5930241.7%126 W · 176 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Erika Andreeva38c1,200$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4563,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Erika Andreeva33c1,142$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.041,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Erika Andreeva31c1,041$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.0446932%150 W · 319 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Erika Andreeva20c617.81$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.977,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Erika Andreeva12c613.32$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.841,37916.4%226 W · 1,153 L-108.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-49.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Erika Andreeva34c586.26$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.669,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ee…47c8backed Rebecca Sramkova69c573.91$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9120261.4%124 W · 78 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Rebecca Sramkova76c518$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.341,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Erika Andreeva37c456$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.2848552.8%256 W · 229 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Rebecca Sramkova76c409$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.471,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076b…dbfabacked Rebecca Sramkova67c399.98$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdcb…36c9backed Rebecca Sramkova63c394.15$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.158530.6%26 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Erika Andreeva34c366.49$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.31,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Rebecca Sramkova61c362.73$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.062,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Erika Andreeva32c312.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Erika Andreeva16c307.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.211,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Rebecca Sramkova71c302.68$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.743,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Rebecca Sramkova70c286$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.838268.1%260 W · 122 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f95…b08bbacked Rebecca Sramkova64c277.16$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7811045.5%50 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Erika Andreeva36c271.59$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.691,97346.3%914 W · 1,059 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Erika Andreeva31c269.04$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9432031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Erika Andreeva32c238.97$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4740744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Rebecca Sramkova68c230.27$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1529461.9%182 W · 112 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Erika Andreeva41c217$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.647427%20 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Erika Andreeva31c211.64$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8811,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Erika Andreeva29c210.05$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.024,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Erika Andreeva35c207.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.753544.1%236 W · 299 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd07…8d16backed Rebecca Sramkova69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626354%34 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Rebecca Sramkova66c199.33$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.777,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Rebecca Sramkova70c196$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.865647.6%312 W · 344 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Erika Andreeva17c191.43$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.082,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Erika Andreeva38c187.5$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.252,41851.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L+10.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b35…51b3backed Erika Andreeva46c176.6$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.835360.9%215 W · 138 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Erika Andreeva21c163.75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4512032.5%39 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Erika Andreeva31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5066452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaad…c739backed Rebecca Sramkova68c161.02$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.531957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Erika Andreeva34c149.84$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6495846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec7…1e38backed Erika Andreeva39c146$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.946248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb69…c3e5backed Rebecca Sramkova70c140$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421,07655.5%597 W · 479 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c1…4364backed Erika Andreeva28c136$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.395143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Rebecca Sramkova70c123.57$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0730258.6%177 W · 125 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Erika Andreeva40c121$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4814746.3%68 W · 79 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Erika Andreeva38c116.05$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.147552.4%249 W · 226 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Rebecca Sramkova70c114.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4588455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Rebecca Sramkova75c110$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.526941.3%111 W · 158 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c4c…dc70backed Erika Andreeva32c109$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.17540%30 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Rebecca Sramkova74c108$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.234744.4%154 W · 193 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Rebecca Sramkova66c107$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3896844.4%430 W · 538 L-1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Erika Andreeva37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Erika Andreeva35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3560943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63ae…97c0backed Erika Andreeva32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked Rebecca Sramkova61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6040…33a9backed Rebecca Sramkova68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327237.5%27 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Rebecca Sramkova68c94$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0878152.8%412 W · 369 L+21.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Rebecca Sramkova68c89.71$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.717150.7%36 W · 35 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked Rebecca Sramkova68c88.24$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2432649.1%160 W · 166 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x649e…fd6abacked Erika Andreeva34c81.82$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Erika Andreeva34c81.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.131,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Rebecca Sramkova62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6535344.8%158 W · 195 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb06…4ababacked Rebecca Sramkova62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6528754%155 W · 132 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983a…ac6bbacked Erika Andreeva38c80$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.413847.8%66 W · 72 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Rebecca Sramkova80c80$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1665346.4%303 W · 350 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Erika Andreeva31c63.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.893,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Erika Andreeva23c57.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.333429.4%10 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-43.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Erika Andreeva37c54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9877047.9%369 W · 401 L-19.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0a…745dbacked Erika Andreeva37c54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9829244.5%130 W · 162 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf02…3a63backed Erika Andreeva37c54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9827246.3%126 W · 146 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Rebecca Sramkova62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2535559.4%211 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Erika Andreeva39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Erika Andreeva31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc01d…2e79backed Erika Andreeva33c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.443438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Rebecca Sramkova70c46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.897046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed Erika Andreeva35c44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44729.8%14 W · 33 L-9.7wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7c47…1189backed Erika Andreeva38c42.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163455.9%19 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+26.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Erika Andreeva33c41.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.666,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe761…4f54backed Erika Andreeva39c40.14$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7326349.4%130 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Rebecca Sramkova62c39.4$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7836333.9%123 W · 240 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e72…54f0backed Rebecca Sramkova68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.766248.4%30 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Rebecca Sramkova68c33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.760240.5%244 W · 358 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Rebecca Sramkova67c30.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.991,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dcf…f174backed Erika Andreeva40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129351.6%48 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a1e…21a1backed Rebecca Sramkova70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912765.4%83 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf9…7560backed Rebecca Sramkova68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4116858.9%99 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xafe3…1f2abacked Rebecca Sramkova77c28.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7612162%75 W · 46 L-14.3wins-0.12per pick74cpaid-13.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Erika Andreeva36c28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0846848.5%227 W · 241 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd015…ec20backed Rebecca Sramkova75c25.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.384158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe10f…c59fbacked Rebecca Sramkova79c25.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1610474%77 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x025f…25cfbacked Rebecca Sramkova68c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.724077.5%31 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6073…2387backed Rebecca Sramkova64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.23742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Rebecca Sramkova66c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.85651.8%29 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Rebecca Sramkova65c17.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2226254.6%143 W · 119 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.