Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. KRC Genk: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x048cdbfa7d5179d024a2d2c9cbd994caf6ff13fed3a085f7dd039c00fb1f2a6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,386 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 59c | 7,616$4,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,464.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 40c | 6,614$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,949.63 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa28d…d5ccbacked Over | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.74 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 12c | 941.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.67 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 65c | 918.98$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 690.86$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 35c | 528.57$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 455.88$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.5 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 11c | 445.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.75 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…4cbfbacked Over | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 48c | 375$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 10c | 311.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.01 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 58c | 243$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.37 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…9372backed Over | 53c | 232.08$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 75c | 226.67$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 73c | 219.92$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.51 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 27c | 189.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…800bbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…9827backed Under | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Over | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 18c | 91.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.37 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 15c | 66.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 55c | 54.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…ce96backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 67c | 46.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Over | 42c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 42cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 78c | 15.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. KRC Genk: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. KRC Genk: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. KRC Genk: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. KRC Genk: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. KRC Genk: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.