Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04952e33eb226762097c1e0cffa47ab0fd56ddab7db152b09b4fe2b2e2be2262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 13c | 937.28$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.77 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 37c | 595.69$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.51 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 50c | 444.01$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.13 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 34c | 428.02$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.05 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 399.14$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 54c | 378.1$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.88 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 62c | 368.47$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.17 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 67c | 231.29$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 69c | 227.96$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 74c | 226.97$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 194.82$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.63 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 172.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 70c | 171.17$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.35 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 145.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 136.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 19c | 133.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.44 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…d79fbacked Yes | 36c | 123.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 122.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 25c | 115.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 70c | 105.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 90.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 90.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 84.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 76c | 71.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 21c | 62.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 62.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 74c | 61.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 25c | 60.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 32c | 55.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 29c | 51.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 45c | 49.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 71c | 44.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 35c | 42.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 28c | 40.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 39.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 46c | 39.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 34c | 36.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 36.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 67c | 29.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 29.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 69c | 29.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 43c | 28.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 67c | 20.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 70c | 19.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 70c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.