WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04d7a3bcabb4d0eebc8ee34e765be6cf8fb21f59ff789d0e054012b70ef95d62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Lynxof Atlanta Dream, Minnesota Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb915…8da5backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 16,584$7,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,960.31 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Atlanta Dream | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 4,518$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 3,018$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.5 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 3,013$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Atlanta Dream | 50c | 2,631$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.5 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Minnesota Lynx | 50c | 2,600$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 2,379$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.31 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 2,122$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.03 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 1,800$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 1,427$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.29 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 844.98$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.61 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 762.5$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.5 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Minnesota Lynx | 76c | 656.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Atlanta Dream | 28c | 213.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Minnesota Lynx | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 132.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 68.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 61.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Minnesota Lynx | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 55.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 296 | 54.4%161 W · 135 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 49.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Minnesota Lynx | 53c | 45.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 61 | 75.4%46 W · 15 L | +10.3wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…74a9backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 42.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286c…f34ebacked Minnesota Lynx | 48c | 42.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…1d65backed Atlanta Dream | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Minnesota Lynx | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 31.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed Minnesota Lynx | 49c | 29.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Atlanta Dream | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…95afbacked Minnesota Lynx | 51c | 21.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…c84cbacked Atlanta Dream | 48c | 21.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…b8dbbacked Atlanta Dream | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5)this page
- Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx won
- Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 163.5Over won
- Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5Over won
- Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5Over won
- Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5)Minnesota Lynx won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5)Minnesota Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.