Commodities · resolved market
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04f1c00f0746f2a64e19e338d26ababff94af0e9162fc767211abe0db116a2bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 67c | 1,233$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.58 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Up | 47c | 568.1$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.95 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…5962backed Down | 49c | 520$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Up | 49c | 401.07$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.43 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 50c | 317.22$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Down | 51c | 226.31$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 8c | 204.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Up | 50c | 200.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99e2…7deebacked Up | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Down | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…fa11backed Up | 54c | 192.64$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Down | 56c | 143.68$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.02 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Down | 51c | 139.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 48c | 102$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Up | 49c | 100.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…7adabacked Down | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…dc97backed Up | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…b88fbacked Down | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7838…3e84backed Down | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Down | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…3f9cbacked Down | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Down | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…1588backed Up | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…9943backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…e60fbacked Up | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Down | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…966fbacked Down | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Up | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…b0c4backed Up | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Down | 24c | 47.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc88…b7eebacked Down | 45c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Down | 52c | 42.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Down | 46c | 33.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…17ddbacked Up | 63c | 29.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Up | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77e8…b14fbacked Down | 54c | 26.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d01…ccb8backed Up | 59c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…127fbacked Up | 68c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Down | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.