Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x054403f08b98dd40059a3f4b8926f9a7414b7b5a9e57ac35ad68cc3a623a4d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,267 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 847$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 31c | 603.87$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.91 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed No | 75c | 594.99$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 68c | 518.9$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.08 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 360.53$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 29c | 290.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 13c | 249$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 214.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 195.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 194.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 181.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 173$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…c884backed No | 75c | 159.51$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 138.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 129.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…6ed4backed Yes | 26c | 129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 121.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 117.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 26c | 114.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 72c | 112.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 15c | 109.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 28c | 107.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 28c | 105.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…6b12backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 99.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 75c | 99.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 95.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 70c | 92.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 72c | 85.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ae…fb0cbacked Yes | 37c | 80.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 74c | 80.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 25c | 79.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 25c | 78.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 71.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 26c | 64.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 29c | 45.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…d759backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…e35bbacked Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 40.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 74c | 40.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c36…36a0backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 76c | 39.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 26c | 39.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…c9cabacked No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed No | 70c | 35.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 39c | 35.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc535…b0e7backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked No | 72c | 27.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…5410backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 65c | 19.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee8…e39cbacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 19.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 74c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 75c | 13.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.