Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x940e1d9c42f952598290787051160afa72e8ca6183e5119eb6ea527dfc7aab8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,825 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 1c | 2,680$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…2fecbacked No | 1c | 1,019$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 844.15$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 401.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 16c | 287.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 78c | 248$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 40c | 208.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.43 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 196.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 182.13$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 80c | 169.81$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 40c | 141.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 37c | 134$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 118.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 68c | 110.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b307backed No | 27c | 109.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed No | 60c | 108.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 106.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 28c | 104.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 13c | 102.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7021…411dbacked No | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 26c | 95.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 26c | 95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 11c | 91.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 40c | 88.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 26c | 87.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 86.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 78.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 20c | 70.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 34c | 58.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 36c | 54.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 63c | 46.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 43.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 62c | 40.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 76c | 39.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 35.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 66c | 33.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 55c | 31.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…61f3backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd0…4048backed No | 72c | 27.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 70c | 26.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 62c | 26.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 77c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 64c | 25.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 73c | 24.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 58c | 23.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…2fc5backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 80c | 18.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…bb8abacked No | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 65c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…1981backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.