Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d4459775e32bca745d27c976d5167a5ecf9444a8efadc8c383a759cc460f86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,906 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 2c | 711$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 42c | 256.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 5c | 249$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 231.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 75c | 189.5$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 188.37$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 134$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 124.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 22c | 115.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 112.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 109.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 25c | 107.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 78c | 96.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc075…cdd2backed Yes | 25c | 94.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 30c | 87.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 24c | 82.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 80c | 74.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 69.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 72c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 67.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 29c | 67.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 23c | 59.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 25c | 59.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 56.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 59c | 51.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 33c | 46.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 34c | 44.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 28c | 43.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c528backed Yes | 47c | 42.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 30c | 40.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 71c | 35.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 27.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 56c | 23.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.