Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x055aba988ff095dd51458e8aafaab73e068e049a5cb5d09ad2b27721b8184730
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 33c | 663.51$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 310.52$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.18 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 42c | 297.54$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 261.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 235.07$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 190.78$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 188.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.47 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 45c | 186.08$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.43 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 59c | 165.75$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 45c | 165.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 157.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 152.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 52c | 121.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 109.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 40c | 95.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 59c | 89.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 55c | 84.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 81.84$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 72.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 64.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 61.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 59c | 56.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 67c | 52.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 45.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 43.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 47c | 38.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 58c | 37.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 37.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 80c | 36.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 45c | 36.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 52c | 36.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 41c | 35.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 45c | 34.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 80c | 33.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 30.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 78c | 28.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 27.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked Yes | 44c | 26.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 24.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 54c | 20.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…dbe4backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 57c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 57c | 19.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.