Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e97ae9a8fc82672f77ee6f693e55efc228b9487c3996ffa10e5757745d18063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 51c | 2,157$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.55 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 457.9$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 53c | 360.83$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 43c | 359.62$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 42c | 267.48$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.23 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 252.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 242.46$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 234$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 73c | 225.69$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 214.42$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.46 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 188.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 176.13$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 44c | 174.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 170.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 46c | 170.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 44c | 164.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 56c | 142.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 134$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 33c | 124$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 121$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd4…b2f2backed Yes | 48c | 105$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 102$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 101$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 53c | 100.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 50c | 97.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 52c | 94.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 48c | 90.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 54c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 48c | 82.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 48c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 50c | 71.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 69.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 55c | 68.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 24c | 67.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 64.91$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 25c | 53.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 53c | 46.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 22c | 45.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 80c | 45.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 49c | 44.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 42.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 48c | 41.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 54c | 40.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 40.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 56c | 39.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 39.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 50c | 37.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 52c | 35.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed No | 62c | 35.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 57c | 33.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 52c | 29.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 53c | 28.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 28.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 26.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 44c | 25.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 52c | 24.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 24.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 49c | 24.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 49c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 49c | 24.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 55c | 22.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 63c | 15.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.