TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,859
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,859 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed No51c2,157$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.551,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No57c457.9$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.964,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c393.3$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed No53c360.83$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19110044%44 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes43c359.62$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.6210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes42c267.48$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.2350860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No15c252.18$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.36,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes49c242.46$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.175,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No60c234$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.543,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6261…2e11backed Yes73c225.69$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.945048%24 W · 26 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-33.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes48c214.42$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4620452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.089938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No55c188.94$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes38c176.13$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.219,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No44c174.97$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.291,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes44c170.66$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.691,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes46c170.27$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.2612747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes44c164.76$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.151,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f9…2ce9backed No56c142.11$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.032751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c140$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes31c140$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.62,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes49c134$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.341,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No33c124$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.11,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c121$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.024,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fd4…b2f2backed Yes48c105$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c102$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.19,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes50c101$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8547538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No53c100.04$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7866944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5185049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes43c99.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9426344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes50c97.1$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5214151.8%73 W · 68 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes52c94.34$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2819252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes48c90.74$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9728368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No54c88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5215966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes48c82.98$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1546148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes48c82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.642,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes49c80$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.841,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes50c71.91$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8417251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No38c69.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.224,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No55c68.41$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6318449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No24c67.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.252,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.615,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c64.91$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.933,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.220056.5%113 W · 87 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ae…bcc7backed Yes48c59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.682152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes48c56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No25c53.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.372,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3066926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b49…2e46backed No53c46.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.865267.3%35 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No22c45.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.092,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes80c45.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3165749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.540862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes49c44.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4914957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes38c42.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.442,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes48c41.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.728546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No54c40.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2645162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes49c40.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8112438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes60c40.17$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.134,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.23,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…cee8backed No56c39.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.964257.1%24 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No51c39.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.941,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dde…71f5backed Yes79c39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.254866.7%32 W · 16 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed Yes50c37.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5613350.4%67 W · 66 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No52c35.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0506…bc49backed No62c35.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.15658.9%33 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81fe…80ecbacked No57c33.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.243959%23 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed No52c29.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3946743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf143…4ef2backed No53c28.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.274766%31 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c28.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No53c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9564167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4673…b24abacked No51c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.282450%12 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes52c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9228344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No56c26.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.073,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No55c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.34,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.33,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes44c25.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3226442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2688…88c9backed Yes47c24.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.242445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed No52c24.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9919757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c24.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.355,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes49c24.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.491,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes49c24.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.531748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes49c24.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3831943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78fb…256cbacked No52c23.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No55c22.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1740162.6%251 W · 150 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes50c22.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0112758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No64c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.837150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No80c16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.818567.6%125 W · 60 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed No63c15.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.