MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05b04117c42e2544afcc4b86964016a6833cbc0b77077dca72cf37e32e5b072e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 36,802$27,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,402.48 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Miami Marlins | 21c | 19,633$4,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,221 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Miami Marlins | 23c | 6,834$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.79 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 2,923$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,531.98 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 2,813$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Miami Marlins | 28c | 2,106$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.01 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Miami Marlins | 53c | 1,651$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked Miami Marlins | 22c | 1,610$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.76 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 1,500$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 1,244$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.66 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 1,168$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.93 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 1,106$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.65 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 865$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.3 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 790$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 676.23$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.98 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 467.04$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.97 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3d…8966backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Miami Marlins | 28c | 294.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 286.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.97 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 216.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 195$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 152$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 127.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 102.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 79.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Miami Marlins | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Miami Marlins | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 78.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 63.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 38.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.