Stocks · resolved market
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $200 end of November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05c04f0aba2c14eee43b1c58e8715d77db0cc062e7671029163641c0b9162733
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d0a…1936backed Yes | 35c | 472$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 6c | 337.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed No | 65c | 300$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.1wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2f39…93d3backed No | 67c | 265.66$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 21c | 180$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 165.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da3…1336backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6a…13f7backed Yes | 16c | 121.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 106.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 58.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 57.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Yes | 32c | 47.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…e366backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93f9…e350backed No | 60c | 35.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…dd78backed No | 76c | 18.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $200 end of November?this page
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $190 end of November?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $192 end of November?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $194 end of November?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $196 end of November?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $198 end of November?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $202 end of November?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $204 end of November?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $206 end of November?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $208 end of November?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $210 end of November?No won
- Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $212 end of November?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.