Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05c206dde7998ebec5921b226c22c2a1e00634585372e7b9f41acf4323ed9093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,442$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 1c | 23,306$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…fd11backed Yes | 0c | 4,716$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…00a0backed Yes | 1c | 2,387$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 43c | 500$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.86 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 439.24$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.27 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 281.36$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 234.12$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 39c | 172.92$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 160.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.22 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 160$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 153.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 124.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 13c | 119.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 61c | 117$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 45c | 113.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 110.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 107.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 57c | 106.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 41c | 91.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 61c | 83.31$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 39c | 83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 81.3$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb50e…efe5backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +208%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 52.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 272 | 44.5%121 W · 151 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 222 | 38.7%86 W · 136 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed Yes | 41c | 48.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 46.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 41c | 46.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 46.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…87c1backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 36c | 37.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…5ac4backed Yes | 53c | 37.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 37.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 36.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…fe0bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 42c | 35.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 35.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 32.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 179 | 36.3%65 W · 114 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 28.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 44c | 28.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 22.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 20.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 60c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 139 | 54%75 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fe…d040backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 56c | 19.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…7850backed No | 61c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 17.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.