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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,460
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,460 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc8c…273fbacked No0c23,097$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-80.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No44c1,452$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.021,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8d4…fd11backed No1c1,159$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No50c450.91$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.494,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No12c424.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.971,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No28c409.47$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.791,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes56c400$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1765,25549.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L-163.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No35c396.21$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1264624.5%158 W · 488 L-19.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No60c370.27$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.111,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes53c367.56$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.2913447.8%64 W · 70 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed Yes57c317.4$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.411346%52 W · 61 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb89b…1a22backed Yes65c285.49$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8110284.3%86 W · 16 L+28.5wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+58.9%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes49c284.75$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.2262960.3%379 W · 250 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No35c244.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.494,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9019845.5%90 W · 108 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes52c198.04$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0826556.2%149 W · 116 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No47c198.01$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.191,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No44c194.17$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1448362.5%302 W · 181 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdee5…1e9bbacked Yes50c186.95$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes46c160$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8654738.6%211 W · 336 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes58c131.21$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.112,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No45c128.29$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2167944.6%303 W · 376 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes70c128$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.876,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No48c124.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.71,63260.7%990 W · 642 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…2162backed Yes49c122.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.456959.4%41 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes55c114$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.32,43958%1,414 W · 1,025 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes50c113.9$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9525158.6%147 W · 104 L+14.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes52c111$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2863733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes44c107.81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.064,70026.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L+64.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes50c105$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4788150.5%445 W · 436 L-3.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.116325.8%42 W · 121 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3522116.7%37 W · 184 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,27452.5%669 W · 605 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes51c95$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6125653.9%138 W · 118 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No50c91.03$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.955,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes50c89.96$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4590155.7%502 W · 399 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked No49c88.4$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9144644.6%199 W · 247 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes51c80.31$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.692,34058.7%1,373 W · 967 L-4.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes34c73.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4952347.6%249 W · 274 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes52c68.21$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7426253.8%141 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes57c65.18$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0392355.9%516 W · 407 L+2.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No49c64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3624158.5%141 W · 100 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes49c60.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9172542.2%306 W · 419 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No48c58.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.774,46765.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L+14.9wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No47c54.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.711,33550.9%680 W · 655 L-35.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No50c54.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2524756.3%139 W · 108 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No41c52.42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4488660.7%538 W · 348 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb106…13f4backed No50c47.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9514455.6%80 W · 64 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91f3…87c1backed Yes45c44.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.53560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+34.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes52c44.03$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2858247.8%278 W · 304 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No50c42.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1412,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No44c41.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.161,24461.7%767 W · 477 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba5…c168backed No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205429.6%16 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes49c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.627244.5%121 W · 151 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No44c38.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.932,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93da…2a34backed No51c37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No40c37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.963,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4868…a1c1backed Yes52c35.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.022065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes39c30.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.811,80550.4%910 W · 895 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes49c30.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.612,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes50c30.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1320255.4%112 W · 90 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.192,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes55c28.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.781,17840.6%478 W · 700 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No45c24.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes56c24.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5843947.6%209 W · 230 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes50c23.95$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9519336.3%70 W · 123 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes53c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6467138.9%261 W · 410 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No49c22.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0312064.2%77 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x431a…88a2backed No66c22.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.677178.9%56 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes49c21.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0412,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes52c21.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2553373.7%393 W · 140 L+36.8wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes51c20.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.215,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e4…7718backed No57c20.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.715971.2%42 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41,15857.1%661 W · 497 L-45.6wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3c…ddd0backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046767.5%315 W · 152 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid+333.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1024248.8%118 W · 124 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1269…9c5cbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-81.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2efd…d295backed Yes64c15.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.77150.7%36 W · 35 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.