Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x825109256d0638fca5760196db80d17448082f21f72704035ac3d56747b00faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 23,097$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 44c | 1,452$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.02 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…fd11backed No | 1c | 1,159$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 450.91$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.49 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 424.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 409.47$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 35c | 396.21$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.12 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 60c | 370.27$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.11 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 53c | 367.56$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.29 | 134 | 47.8%64 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 57c | 317.4$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.4 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 65c | 285.49$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 102 | 84.3%86 W · 16 L | +28.5wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 49c | 284.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.22 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 244.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 52c | 198.04$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 198.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 44c | 194.17$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…1e9bbacked Yes | 50c | 186.95$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 160$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 58c | 131.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 45c | 128.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 70c | 128$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 124.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 55c | 114$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 50c | 113.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 52c | 111$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 107.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 105$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 91.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 50c | 89.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 49c | 88.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 51c | 80.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 34c | 73.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 52c | 68.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 57c | 65.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 49c | 64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 49c | 60.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 725 | 42.2%306 W · 419 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 58.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 47c | 54.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 50c | 54.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 41c | 52.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 50c | 47.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…87c1backed Yes | 45c | 44.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 52c | 44.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 42.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 41.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 272 | 44.5%121 W · 151 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 38.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93da…2a34backed No | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed Yes | 52c | 35.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 39c | 30.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 50c | 30.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 28.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 24.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 50c | 23.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 49c | 22.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 66c | 22.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 71 | 78.9%56 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 52c | 21.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 20.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 57c | 20.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 467 | 67.5%315 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +333.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1269…9c5cbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.