Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Yemen by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05d335a1d6ab36b931d37dbdb1657738b76ff29739a8fde00452f1ed1372cce1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 18c | 3,540$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.7 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 79c | 2,421$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.98 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 17c | 2,040$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.85 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…9a75backed No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,942$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…3b76backed No | 16c | 1,623$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,408$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 80c | 1,382$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.29 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…31fcbacked No | 22c | 1,337$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76fbbacked Yes | 77c | 1,313$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.51 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495d…ef9fbacked No | 24c | 1,051$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 77c | 1,014$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.28 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf13…690abacked No | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed No | 5c | 937.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf253…7adcbacked No | 12c | 867.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 18c | 850$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.05 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 18c | 823.44$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 16c | 639.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…e66bbacked Yes | 77c | 495.29$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…951abacked No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 9c | 356.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 13c | 356$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe487…aca6backed No | 18c | 331.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 21c | 322.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 6c | 314.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…ba7abacked Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 19c | 294.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…de74backed No | 6c | 284.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked No | 18c | 280.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 18c | 252.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…90f5backed No | 16c | 240$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 16c | 231.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +19.1wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed No | 18c | 192.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 80c | 190.17$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed No | 16c | 182.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467d…b913backed No | 11c | 174.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…f611backed No | 18c | 168.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 21c | 163.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked No | 13c | 151.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe402…76c9backed No | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…4bbdbacked No | 72c | 138.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 76c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…bbdebacked No | 16c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…1047backed No | 14c | 71.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…dc05backed No | 17c | 65.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…b1a8backed Yes | 79c | 63.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…3829backed No | 24c | 60.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…916abacked Yes | 79c | 37.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5295…2497backed Yes | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a6…522dbacked Yes | 78c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd215…5395backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…2e3cbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.