Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05f159345c90edcf0c002a5eebc869bd3816ec31d2613fc2c8c38ebefb90a409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 50c | 454.41$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.44 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 57c | 317.28$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 35c | 294.13$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.85 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 49c | 240.74$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 6c | 221.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 55c | 191.86$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 61c | 170.94$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 65c | 146.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…0f61backed Yes | 44c | 131.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 16c | 127.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 49c | 126.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 21c | 124.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 11c | 124.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 23c | 112.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 20c | 100.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 48c | 99.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 99.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 95.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 18c | 92.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed No | 29c | 89.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 86.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 86.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 60c | 84.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed Yes | 60c | 81.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 64c | 77.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 73.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 60c | 64.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 20c | 63.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…979ebacked Yes | 38c | 61.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 61.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 31c | 60.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 41c | 60.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 25c | 56.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 49.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 50c | 49.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…ba60backed Yes | 68c | 43.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 29c | 43.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked Yes | 46c | 39.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 45c | 35.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…bfa0backed Yes | 60c | 32.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 31.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcc…f528backed Yes | 40c | 28.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 71c | 27.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bb…7c05backed Yes | 53c | 24.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…d903backed No | 63c | 22.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 53c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked Yes | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 71c | 15.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4852…2da9backed Yes | 68c | 14.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or higher on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.