Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or higher on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8175a8a22149bb6349990a706cf9f3c7a9b7b3b4a6ba62ab24769f478c3a910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 56c | 379.52$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 49c | 349.59$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.26 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 331.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 53c | 321.31$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 18c | 263.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 48c | 231.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.37 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 225.06$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 55c | 221.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 54c | 176.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 21c | 176.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 61c | 133.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…979ebacked No | 43c | 110.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…8190backed No | 45c | 108.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 103.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 100.79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 44c | 97.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…2138backed No | 60c | 96.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 43c | 91.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 51c | 86.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 83.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 33c | 76.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 44c | 72.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 37c | 64.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…13b3backed Yes | 65c | 63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 42c | 59.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 73c | 59.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked Yes | 33c | 57.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 34c | 57.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 50.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 42c | 50.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed Yes | 23c | 49.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 77c | 47.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 43.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 38c | 42.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked No | 35c | 40.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed Yes | 37c | 39.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked Yes | 52c | 38.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 50c | 37.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 41c | 36.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 51c | 35.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…1fd7backed No | 70c | 31.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…e353backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…81f5backed Yes | 38c | 29.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed Yes | 49c | 29.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked Yes | 48c | 29.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 28.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 69c | 28.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…1f93backed No | 40c | 28.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 53c | 27.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 47c | 25.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 74c | 25.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f8…73a1backed No | 58c | 25.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 64c | 22.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 22.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 69c | 20.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 65c | 19.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 54c | 19.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 57c | 18.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 80c | 18.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1525…2815backed No | 55c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +56%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 17.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4467…cbfcbacked Yes | 66c | 16.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or higher on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.