Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x061037b792759f6af928a7d77bf5e2af51ab63301c11cec454e7cf28d99a180d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 294.1$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 237.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 28c | 217.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.73 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 44c | 203.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 165.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 120.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 27c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 93.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 32c | 89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9743…d3a4backed No | 32c | 89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 72c | 82.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 40c | 81.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 72.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 15c | 70.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 70.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 70.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 58c | 68.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 66.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 64c | 65.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 34c | 65.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 64.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 60c | 63.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 64c | 59.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 21c | 54.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 62c | 50.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked Yes | 42c | 50.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 41c | 48.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 78c | 41.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked Yes | 55c | 39.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ac…d51ebacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 35.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0296…ad01backed Yes | 41c | 31.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 31.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…b813backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 74c | 29.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 66c | 27.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked No | 68c | 27.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 67c | 27.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 58c | 24.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 24.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 70c | 23.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 54c | 20.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed No | 77c | 19.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f9…7764backed Yes | 71c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 17.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 68c | 16.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.