Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x437ccce6ec7293e75e601e033652dd47613a303dc2ffb6aaf397d724d81daca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 60c | 265.75$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 178.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 25c | 159.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 48c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 135.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 41c | 133.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 63c | 118$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 48c | 115.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 75c | 106.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 64c | 102.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 98.76$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 49c | 96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…0002backed Yes | 54c | 92.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 67c | 89.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 39c | 78.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 59c | 70.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…3441backed No | 77c | 64.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 62.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 60.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…b813backed Yes | 42c | 55.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 54.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 57c | 52.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 71c | 51.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025c…5b44backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8792…4174backed Yes | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 35c | 45.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 44.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…b42dbacked No | 50c | 40.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 65c | 38.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 36.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 61c | 32.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 65c | 31.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…a606backed No | 61c | 31.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 65c | 30.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 41c | 26.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed8…cad8backed No | 74c | 24.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 57c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 63c | 17.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 69c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 65c | 16.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.