MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06350678b5f21c663bb483f192bd531d22817d143dcd06294a4a1259539ecdd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 69c | 3,998$2,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.17 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 33c | 3,652$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.4 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 33c | 2,619$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.96 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 3c | 1,800$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 67c | 1,659$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.52 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99e…4d03backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…3c44backed Under | 2c | 846.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 794.72$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.22 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 33c | 678.76$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.99 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 55c | 636.52$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.66 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…15eebacked Under | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad40…5f9cbacked Under | 3c | 525.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 519.76$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.85 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 8c | 252$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +11.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 32c | 197$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 999 | 24.6%246 W · 753 L | -70.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Over | 67c | 183$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…e715backed Over | 71c | 129.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 16c | 124.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 55c | 114$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 68c | 107.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 11c | 101.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 64c | 58.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 75c | 57.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…f103backed Under | 29c | 43.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…ba5fbacked Under | 29c | 42.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…0b06backed Under | 29c | 42.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 73c | 33.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 76c | 26.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 61c | 18.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.