MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcce43e2b64ec8dcce30228526b5adfce6fa8c3b32003e3c5ff6646f3d94bdcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 6,975$3,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,714 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 3,434$1,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 39c | 2,638$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.93 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 59c | 2,531$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.37 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 1,970$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Under | 65c | 1,662$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.09 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 42c | 1,382$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.79 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 60c | 1,320$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 61c | 1,298$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 61c | 1,298$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 1,055$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 40c | 989.86$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.91 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6861…baa9backed Under | 51c | 765.39$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 757.88$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 74c | 629.27$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.32 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 33c | 411$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.37 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 398.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 20c | 330$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 73c | 321.21$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.39 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522d…3913backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 52c | 137.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 30c | 112$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 95.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 70c | 86.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 36c | 65.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 66c | 63.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 31c | 42.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 31c | 41.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 38.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Under | 63c | 28.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…26a0backed Under | 71c | 25.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 54c | 19.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3353backed Under | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 62c | 16.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.