MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93870a96f1aedba352c3e6714039445478d6e3cceafc2ea531cfc7c7f149e4f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 8,700$6,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,609.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 30c | 4,657$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.99 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 30c | 1,098$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.04 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 30c | 1,078$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.45 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 70c | 956.07$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 30c | 733.3$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 30c | 359.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 30c | 359.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.78 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 22c | 240.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 26c | 215.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.98 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x522d…3913backed Over | 16c | 188.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 169.94$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 30c | 162.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 30c | 133.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 34c | 129.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 30c | 89.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 30c | 79.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 31c | 75.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 75c | 68.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 30c | 65.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 79c | 63.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 30c | 56.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 30c | 38.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…e307backed Under | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.