MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c0aab3775bae79332fb9961c526b14deee956c50601c1dd65e66ad226fb858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 33,554$17,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,678.85 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 46c | 22,054$10,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,123.51 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 46c | 17,027$7,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,913.85 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 53c | 10,536$5,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,957.55 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 5,215$2,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.02 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 45c | 4,180$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.97 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 61c | 1,445$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.97 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 46c | 1,066$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.73 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…3c44backed Under | 3c | 485.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6861…baa9backed Under | 54c | 450$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 384.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.61 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 51c | 173.64$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 167.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 32c | 156.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 107$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 54c | 105.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 49c | 98.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…0795backed Over | 61c | 96.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 54c | 94.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 60c | 83.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…b145backed Under | 53c | 74.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 52c | 74.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 45c | 67.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 54c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 32c | 61.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 63c | 53.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 48c | 53.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Under | 48c | 52.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fc…faedbacked Under | 52c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…e307backed Under | 32c | 50.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3297…43cdbacked Under | 39c | 50.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 49.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 43c | 48.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 48c | 46.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed Under | 39c | 46.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 42c | 43.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 53c | 43.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 41c | 40.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 52c | 32.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…388ebacked Under | 50c | 26.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 50c | 23.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Over | 61c | 23.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 60c | 23.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 60c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…0981backed Over | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 64c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Over | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.