Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 26 above $430?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0649f9dd151f4b1d96e4b91d5206d16c90da1f819b2c3a998c54e5b3503c128d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 76c | 1,097$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.65 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…5410backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked No | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 39c | 769.67$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.46 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 39c | 670.2$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.18 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 64c | 430$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 66c | 300$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 32c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 60c | 131.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9728…0314backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…e682backed Yes | 32c | 82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 72c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 42.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 40c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked No | 80c | 34.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…88f7backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 61c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x074d…f2d3backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 26 above $430?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 26 above $440?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 26 above $460?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 26 above $470?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 26 above $490?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of January 26 above $500?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.