Europa Conference League · resolved market
SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0656856982697a752b8b7e1bc7ed13f2c2f16a5b85779eb7025eb4b2902e37ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,250 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 11c | 1,239$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.28 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 24c | 486.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 27c | 327.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 25c | 290.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.95 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 27c | 286.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 77c | 198.01$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 73c | 150.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 28c | 124.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 23c | 86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 23c | 85.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…c739backed Under | 73c | 46.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 77c | 38.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 71c | 18.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 76c | 17.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 76c | 16.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5this page
- SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Under won
- SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)SK Sigma Olomouc won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.