Europa Conference League · resolved market
SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f70581bb2b99312672c1e66f74f9d56fbf6780024fe65b4c1c2455723d7bc82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,079 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd29…77aebacked Over | 44c | 137,542$60,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,039.39 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Under | 57c | 66,000$37,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,559.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 38,973$22,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,515 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 56c | 34,197$19,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,046.9 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 3,755$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.03 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4303…9f4cbacked Over | 45c | 3,184$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 57c | 3,169$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.25 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Over | 44c | 2,113$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.62 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 47c | 892.34$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.4 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 43c | 800$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 30c | 778.07$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.95 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 56c | 728.57$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.57 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 56c | 438.14$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.22 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 57c | 292.65$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.72 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 53c | 255.66$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Over | 43c | 222$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 56c | 169.43$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 43c | 116.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 43c | 115$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Over | 45c | 100.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Under | 55c | 97.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 56c | 96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 53c | 95.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 56c | 83.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…6f38backed Over | 45c | 73.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 47c | 59.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 56c | 58.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 55c | 49.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Over | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed Under | 56c | 39.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 30.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Under | 56c | 29.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Under | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 49c | 27.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed Under | 56c | 25.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…c3e9backed Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd400…28b8backed Under | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5this page
- SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Under won
- SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- SK Sigma Olomouc vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)SK Sigma Olomouc won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.