Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0682c7c5aacae278293cdfafc20588a1ddb8911d92096fef1bd5b7dc1c0a8527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38e9…4355backed Yes | 49c | 1,136$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +103%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 410.05$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.91 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 373.29$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 60c | 266.59$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 27c | 160$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 158.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 56c | 125.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 40c | 123.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 119.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 51c | 103.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 59c | 100.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 14c | 99.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 55c | 89.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 85.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 61c | 74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 69.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a57…d90cbacked No | 50c | 63.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 70c | 61.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 71c | 53.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…48e9backed Yes | 59c | 48.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 27c | 45.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…1d79backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 50c | 28.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…ed3dbacked No | 43c | 26.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.2wins | -0.30per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…60f9backed No | 43c | 26.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb826…dc01backed No | 48c | 25.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…fc55backed No | 51c | 24.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 22.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 57c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdf…eba6backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7da…138cbacked Yes | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…9dcdbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…70acbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…7efcbacked Yes | 59c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 24?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.