MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x069d6d0782231fd6ae9be7eefc2b04c9d66446d9aea49e14d01bbe8345ca0457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x255a…3435backed St. Louis Cardinals | 13c | 5,380$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.35 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 4,558$3,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,503.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 18c | 3,610$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…97d4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 1,852$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed St. Louis Cardinals | 13c | 1,063$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 13c | 1,063$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.18 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Athletics | 40c | 1,005$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 619.4$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.78 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics | 38c | 551.97$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.58 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 14c | 543.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 510$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.9 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Athletics | 39c | 494.16$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Athletics | 40c | 391.03$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.62 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 41c | 356.68$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…3e23backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 290$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Athletics | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 14c | 205$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Athletics | 34c | 198$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 135.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.57 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 29c | 135.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed St. Louis Cardinals | 15c | 131$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Athletics | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Athletics | 35c | 86.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 83.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked St. Louis Cardinals | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 33c | 76.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 60.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 62c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 52.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Athletics | 40c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Athletics | 71c | 50.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 40c | 49.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0707…9142backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 42.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 38.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals | 59c | 36.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Athletics | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Athletics | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 23.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 20.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 18.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…a311backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 15.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Athletics won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.