MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b0727e4a714325e34986b1d0f4440c5a485ea68a1c191a85a870f3a9e89667
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 9,594$6,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,292.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 7,758$3,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,239.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 2,788$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 57c | 2,500$1,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,425 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 43c | 2,338$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.07 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 46c | 729.49$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.63 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 699.71$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 65c | 611.52$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 122 | 65.6%80 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 568.85$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.21 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 560.32$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.2 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 48c | 515.73$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.02 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 49c | 402.37$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.16 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 50c | 388.05$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.75 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 373.77$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.72 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 54c | 363.39$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.16 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 31c | 323.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 50c | 303.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 50c | 303.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 225.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 50c | 224.72$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 54c | 220.7$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.41 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 45c | 196.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565a…3207backed Over | 45c | 195.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Under | 52c | 193.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.22 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 49c | 137.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…f14dbacked Over | 56c | 123.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 44c | 109.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 89.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 53c | 75.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Over | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 37c | 56.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 50c | 54.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 71c | 52.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 48c | 50.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Over | 50c | 50.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 45c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 58c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 51c | 39.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 54c | 39.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 44c | 38.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 53c | 37.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 47c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…10f6backed Under | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 53c | 30.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 54c | 23.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 64c | 23.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8582…40cebacked Over | 50c | 22.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 58c | 21.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Athletics won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.