TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,674
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,674 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under66c9,594$6,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,292.8910,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over45c7,758$3,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,239.9511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over33c2,788$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.2812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Under57c2,500$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42551756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over43c2,338$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.0770546.8%330 W · 375 L-13.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over46c729.49$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.636,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under49c699.71$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.278,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under65c611.52$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012265.6%80 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over40c568.85$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.218,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over50c560.32$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.25,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under48c515.73$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.021,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under49c402.37$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.161,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over50c388.05$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.759,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Under49c373.77$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.722,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over54c363.39$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.162,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under31c323.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9994648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over50c303.99$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.21,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over50c303.99$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.21,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under53c225.73$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.642,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under50c224.72$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.476,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under54c220.7$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.181,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Over24c208.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.4133934.5%117 W · 222 L-9.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over45c196.59$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2682551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x565a…3207backed Over45c195.56$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.561346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Under52c193.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.225,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Under49c137.69$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3997050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e44…f14dbacked Over56c123.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.142722.2%6 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-58.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under49c115$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3599744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over44c109.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.11,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over50c89.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.594,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over53c75.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.721,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Over22c59.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9935341.1%145 W · 208 L-16.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over37c56.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8199624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over50c54.74$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.341,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under49c54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.35,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under71c52.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.61,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7268…78abbacked Over48c50.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2720040%80 W · 120 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41d8…7233backed Over50c50.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.178560%51 W · 34 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Under51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over45c42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under58c41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.582,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Over51c39.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2122554.7%123 W · 102 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Under54c39.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.158054.5%316 W · 264 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Over44c38.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7611553%61 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under53c37.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.812,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Over47c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2824654.9%135 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95fc…10f6backed Under54c31.48$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Under53c30.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2583053%440 W · 390 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under54c23.54$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7146952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed Over64c23.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4120764.7%134 W · 73 L+21.2wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8582…40cebacked Over50c22.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.211241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Under58c21.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.161,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Over52c19.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6346946.3%217 W · 252 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.