TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Athletics (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Athleticsof Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,321

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,234 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics43c4,487$1,948 inWon+$2,538.8311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed St. Louis Cardinals57c3,509$2,000 inLost-$2,00025066.4%166 W · 84 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics42c2,809$1,177 inWon+$1,631.9112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals63c2,736$1,722 inLost-$1,722.0410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Athletics29c1,054$307 inWon+$746.761,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16e5…6373backed Athletics63c949.56$598 inWon+$351.348658.1%50 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked St. Louis Cardinals70c941.99$659 inLost-$659.453261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals43c936.32$402 inLost-$401.788,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals29c440.09$128 inLost-$128.061,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2f…bda7backed Athletics71c238.87$169 inWon+$69.872857.1%16 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked St. Louis Cardinals72c227.89$164 inLost-$163.862,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed St. Louis Cardinals47c211.24$100 inLost-$99.9994648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed Athletics27c210$57 inWon+$153.38125.9%21 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed St. Louis Cardinals44c116.42$51 inLost-$51.018,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked St. Louis Cardinals58c100$58 inLost-$5860350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics27c95.18$26 inWon+$69.066,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c0…244ebacked Athletics42c92.86$39 inWon+$53.8621948.4%106 W · 113 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Athletics68c58.41$40 inWon+$18.415139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e45…39dabacked St. Louis Cardinals62c50.13$31 inLost-$31.0818547.6%88 W · 97 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Athletics35c48$17 inWon+$31.21,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics38c45.13$17 inWon+$27.986,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked St. Louis Cardinals27c44.79$12 inLost-$11.951,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…fd6ebacked St. Louis Cardinals35c42.86$15 inLost-$1512349.6%61 W · 62 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked St. Louis Cardinals55c39.35$22 inLost-$21.5282551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Athletics69c35$24 inWon+$10.9846946.3%217 W · 252 L-25.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals44c27.33$12 inLost-$12.142,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked St. Louis Cardinals71c26.83$19 inLost-$18.9348653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed St. Louis Cardinals57c26.75$15 inLost-$15.2538352.2%200 W · 183 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed St. Louis Cardinals71c25.94$19 inLost-$18.531,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed St. Louis Cardinals43c25.68$11 inLost-$11.1511553%61 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Athletics46c25.57$12 inWon+$13.881,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76c2…8c93backed St. Louis Cardinals53c20.75$11 inLost-$11742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed St. Louis Cardinals61c18.72$11 inLost-$11.3732857.9%190 W · 138 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2827…64f6backed Athletics78c18.13$14 inWon+$3.9120764.7%134 W · 73 L+21.2wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed St. Louis Cardinals73c16.37$12 inLost-$11.9826853.4%143 W · 125 L+1.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.