Middle East · resolved market
Will Kanye visit Israel by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06d96dfe1e7fbe2539769db4778f46379fa7af26ec6d900b40caf7f14086a19a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 2,706$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.93 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64fa…2f1fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,928$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,898$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…b4a9backed Yes | 7c | 1,640$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…089fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,403$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…a5edbacked Yes | 6c | 999.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e9…9452backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 611.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 598$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e4…b365backed Yes | 9c | 573.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 2c | 535$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc5…2276backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…509ebacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…0b3abacked Yes | 8c | 211.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 205.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…d12cbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x009f…9ec3backed Yes | 27c | 184.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…b6e3backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 7c | 173.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee71…9204backed Yes | 13c | 157.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e0…284abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 67c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.