NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06dce489f7b53d415f919f3f68070b085e5f9f798f261c0dbedd40af9fe53d4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Clippers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 25,124$11,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,406.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…8e70backed Clippers | 53c | 18,703$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -12.4wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Clippers | 53c | 8,749$4,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,636.94 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 3,680$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.09 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Clippers | 52c | 3,264$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.98 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Clippers | 52c | 1,670$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.39 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers | 47c | 1,059$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.69 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f95…6972backed Cavaliers | 48c | 748.73$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.34 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…fccdbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 612.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.58 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 63c | 416.74$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cavaliers | 48c | 298.64$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Cavaliers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fe…c871backed Clippers | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Clippers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Clippers | 52c | 181.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Clippers | 52c | 141.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Clippers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…3976backed Cavaliers | 49c | 78.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…9872backed Clippers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cavaliers | 48c | 52.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Clippers | 54c | 46.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Clippers | 52c | 39.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Clippers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Clippers | 54c | 37.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…a806backed Cavaliers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 160 | 30.6%49 W · 111 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Clippers | 52c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Clippers | 52c | 26.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2905…18a9backed Clippers | 54c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Cavaliers | 48c | 24.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7337…0cd1backed Clippers | 53c | 21.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e6…7dc4backed Clippers | 54c | 19.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. ClippersCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Clippers: O/U 222.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5Under won
- Ivica Zubac: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jaylon Tyson: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- John Collins: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- John Collins: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Kawhi Leonard: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.